Observatory Version of Misc Musings, Ravings, and Random Thoughts
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Space weather is showing a minor disturbance with a G2 (geomagnetic) storm. However, the geoelectric model is going wild right now:
While monitoring this daily for a few years, I can only recall one other such storm. The scale is mV/km and the purple is 10K, red is 1K.
https://www.spaceweather.gov/products/geoelectric-field-models-1-minute#
While monitoring this daily for a few years, I can only recall one other such storm. The scale is mV/km and the purple is 10K, red is 1K.
https://www.spaceweather.gov/products/geoelectric-field-models-1-minute#
Over on The Guardian is an amazing documentary on the efforts of some Chilean scientists to sample the microbial life in the Atacama Desert before it is plundered further for lithium. They are looking for possible candidates in developing new antibiotics for the current strains of superbugs and drug resistant bacteria.
Beautifully photographed and, at 20 minutes, mercifully to the point, it covers the work of Cristina Dorador and her team.
https://www.theguardian.com/society...superbugs-starts-in-the-driest-place-on-earth
Beautifully photographed and, at 20 minutes, mercifully to the point, it covers the work of Cristina Dorador and her team.
https://www.theguardian.com/society...superbugs-starts-in-the-driest-place-on-earth
Kilauea is erupting again. The arc from the south vent took out the V3 camera, the feed is very spotty, seems it is not quite dead yet, but ...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiyttmA7YkA
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiyttmA7YkA
Lava fountain engulfs USGS HVO V3cam - December 6, 2025
In case you ever wondered what it would be liked to be engulfed in a lava fountain... This video was recorded by the V3 camera, located on the south rim of Halema‘uma‘u crater at the summit of Kīlauea volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i. The camera, located in a hazardous closed area of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, was buried by tephra from an inclined lava fountain between 9:55 and 9:57 am HST on December 6, during episode 38 of the Kīlauea summit eruption that began on December 23, 2024.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4uSfIYSrNw
In case you ever wondered what it would be liked to be engulfed in a lava fountain... This video was recorded by the V3 camera, located on the south rim of Halema‘uma‘u crater at the summit of Kīlauea volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i. The camera, located in a hazardous closed area of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, was buried by tephra from an inclined lava fountain between 9:55 and 9:57 am HST on December 6, during episode 38 of the Kīlauea summit eruption that began on December 23, 2024.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4uSfIYSrNw
A note from spaceweather.com today:
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED : A CME is approaching Earth, and it could cause a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm when it arrives during the early UTC hours of Jan. 20th. For sky watchers in North America, this means the night of Jan. 19-20. Widespread auroras are possible if the storm reaches its predicted peak intensity. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
https://spaceweather.com/
SOLAR PROTON STORM IN PROGRESS: Energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. They were accelerated in our direction by yesterday's powerful X-class solar flare (described below). This is called a "solar proton storm," and currently it is category S3. Shortwave radios inside the Arctic Circle aren't working right now due to this storm, which is causing a polar cap absorption event. Currently, there is no danger to air travelers.
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED Prepare your cameras! NOAA says that a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is possible on Jan. 20th when a CME is expected to slam into Earth's magnetic field. The CME was launched on Jan. 18th by an X1.9-class solar flare from sunspot 4341:
Researchers call this "a long duration flare." The explosion lasted for hours, which makes it even more powerful than than its "X1.9" rating would suggest. Much of that power went into the CME now approaching Earth.
If NOAA's forecast is correct, the CME will strike during the early hours of Jan. 20th. In North America, that means the night of Jan. 19-20. A severe storm could spark auroras visible to the naked eye in at least a dozen northern-tier US states. Photographic auroras with colors visible only to cameras (and smartphones) could descend as far south as Arizona, Texas and southern California.
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED : A CME is approaching Earth, and it could cause a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm when it arrives during the early UTC hours of Jan. 20th. For sky watchers in North America, this means the night of Jan. 19-20. Widespread auroras are possible if the storm reaches its predicted peak intensity. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
https://spaceweather.com/
SOLAR PROTON STORM IN PROGRESS: Energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. They were accelerated in our direction by yesterday's powerful X-class solar flare (described below). This is called a "solar proton storm," and currently it is category S3. Shortwave radios inside the Arctic Circle aren't working right now due to this storm, which is causing a polar cap absorption event. Currently, there is no danger to air travelers.
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED Prepare your cameras! NOAA says that a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is possible on Jan. 20th when a CME is expected to slam into Earth's magnetic field. The CME was launched on Jan. 18th by an X1.9-class solar flare from sunspot 4341:
Researchers call this "a long duration flare." The explosion lasted for hours, which makes it even more powerful than than its "X1.9" rating would suggest. Much of that power went into the CME now approaching Earth.
If NOAA's forecast is correct, the CME will strike during the early hours of Jan. 20th. In North America, that means the night of Jan. 19-20. A severe storm could spark auroras visible to the naked eye in at least a dozen northern-tier US states. Photographic auroras with colors visible only to cameras (and smartphones) could descend as far south as Arizona, Texas and southern California.
Kilauea is erupting again
HVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice
Volcano: Kilauea (VNUM #332010)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Issued: Saturday, January 24, 2026, 11:11 AM HST
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2026/H39
Location: N 19 deg 25 min W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1247 m)
Area: Hawaii
Volcanic Activity Summary:
Episode 41 of lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu began at the summit of Kīlauea began at 11:10 a.m. HST on January 24.
Ground-level sensors near the eruptive vents indicate that winds are light and blowing from the south southeast direction, which suggests that volcanic gas emissions and volcanic material may be distributed to the north northwest direction from Halemaʻumaʻu. Winds are forecast to be light and variable over the next several hours.
Recent Observations:
[Volcanic cloud height] Plume in past episodes has reached up to or above 20,000 feet (6000 meters) above ground level, driven by incandescent lava fountains up to or over 1500 feet (457 meters) high.
[Other volcanic cloud information] Most volcanic ash and pumice (tephra) falls within about 1 mile (1-2 km) of the eruptive vents during eruptive episodes. Lower concentrations of finer volcanic particles, such as ash and Pele's Hair, can be transported greater distances downwind of the vent (20 miles or 30 km). Sulfur dioxide emission rate is typically 50,000-100,000 tonnes/day during an eruptive episode.
[Ballistics] N/A
[Lava flow/dome] N/A
[Lava flow] Confined to Halemaʻumaʻu (within summit caldera).
Hazard Analysis:
[Ashfall] Small volcanic particles may impact downwind areas.
[Lava flow/dome] N/A
[Pyroclastic flow] N/A
[Mud flow] N/A
[Volcanic gas] Typically 50,000-100,000 tonnes/day during sustained lava fountaining episode.
[Lava flow] Confined to Halemaʻumaʻu (within summit caldera).
HVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice
Volcano: Kilauea (VNUM #332010)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Issued: Saturday, January 24, 2026, 11:11 AM HST
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2026/H39
Location: N 19 deg 25 min W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1247 m)
Area: Hawaii
Volcanic Activity Summary:
Episode 41 of lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu began at the summit of Kīlauea began at 11:10 a.m. HST on January 24.
Ground-level sensors near the eruptive vents indicate that winds are light and blowing from the south southeast direction, which suggests that volcanic gas emissions and volcanic material may be distributed to the north northwest direction from Halemaʻumaʻu. Winds are forecast to be light and variable over the next several hours.
- All eruptive activity is confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park
- Three Kīlauea summit livestream videos that show eruptive lava fountains are available here: https://youtube.com/@usgs/streams
- KPcam and MKcam provide views of the plume height for aviation purposes
- Additional short updates as the episode progresses will be posted here: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages
- Timeline of eruptive episodes since December 23, 2024: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/eruption-information
Recent Observations:
[Volcanic cloud height] Plume in past episodes has reached up to or above 20,000 feet (6000 meters) above ground level, driven by incandescent lava fountains up to or over 1500 feet (457 meters) high.
[Other volcanic cloud information] Most volcanic ash and pumice (tephra) falls within about 1 mile (1-2 km) of the eruptive vents during eruptive episodes. Lower concentrations of finer volcanic particles, such as ash and Pele's Hair, can be transported greater distances downwind of the vent (20 miles or 30 km). Sulfur dioxide emission rate is typically 50,000-100,000 tonnes/day during an eruptive episode.
[Ballistics] N/A
[Lava flow/dome] N/A
[Lava flow] Confined to Halemaʻumaʻu (within summit caldera).
Hazard Analysis:
[Ashfall] Small volcanic particles may impact downwind areas.
[Lava flow/dome] N/A
[Pyroclastic flow] N/A
[Mud flow] N/A
[Volcanic gas] Typically 50,000-100,000 tonnes/day during sustained lava fountaining episode.
[Lava flow] Confined to Halemaʻumaʻu (within summit caldera).
spaceweaather.com is "celebrating" the 70th anniversary of THE 1956 GROUND LEVEL EVENT with details from that date. A very interesting update on what a major flare can do almost instantly.
I was thinking about putting this in the SpaceX thread here, but no.
spaceweather.com has a rant about Starlink streaking astronomical photos - this is what it looks like today. I don't observe or do any astro-photography any longer but if I did ...
the commentary Dr. Phillips writes is good.
spaceweather.com has a rant about Starlink streaking astronomical photos - this is what it looks like today. I don't observe or do any astro-photography any longer but if I did ...
the commentary Dr. Phillips writes is good.
Kilauea is erupting again, episode 43. The USGS team has enabled a microphone on the V1 live-stream cam. While the V1 image is blurred you can leave the audio on and tune into V2 or V3 cams for clear visuals. I'm hearing the plink plink of falling stones and the background growl of the fissures over the wind, but it seems to be pretty calm today.
From the V3 stream.
HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY STATUS REPORT
U.S. Geological Survey
Tuesday, March 10, 2026, 12:17 PM HST (Tuesday, March 10, 2026, 22:17 UTC)
KILAUEA (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: RED
Activity Summary:
More Information:
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is one of five volcano observatories within the U.S. Geological Survey and is responsible for monitoring volcanoes and earthquakes in Hawaiʻi and American Samoa.
CONTACT INFORMATION:
askHVO@usgs.gov
Subscribe to these messages: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vns2/
Summary of volcanic hazards from eruptions: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/hazards
Recent earthquakes in Hawaiʻi (map and list): https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo
Explanation of Volcano Alert Levels and Aviation Color Codes: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcanic-alert-levels-characterize-conditions-us-volcanoes
View online at: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2026-03-10T20:58:58+00:00
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From the V3 stream.
HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY STATUS REPORT
U.S. Geological Survey
Tuesday, March 10, 2026, 12:17 PM HST (Tuesday, March 10, 2026, 22:17 UTC)
KILAUEA (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: RED
Activity Summary:
- Episode 43 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at Kīlauea summit began around 9:17 a.m. HST on March 10, 2026, and is continuing at this time.
- Initial fountains began from the north vent with the south vent starting just before 10 a.m. HST.
- Currently the south fountain is 1150 feet (350 meters) high and the north vent is 1000 feet (300 meters) high.
- Maximum fountain heights for both vents were over 1300 feet (400 meters).
- Lava flows are have covered about one third of the floor of Halemaʻumaʻu crater.
- Precursory overflows began from the north vent at 8:20 a.m. HST and continued directly into the fountaining episode.
- Tephra fallout, visible in HVO webcams from as early as 9:50 a.m. HST, is creating hazardous conditions in areas downwind, including neighboring communities and Highway 11.
- Volcano Village and Mauna Loa Estates - up to 3 inches in diameter
- Royal Hawaiian Estates - up half an inch in diameter and Pele's hair
- Fallout that nearly continuously covers the ground has been reported at various overlooks in Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park and Volcano Golf Course
- The National Weather Service has issued an Ashfall Warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsi...roduct1=Ashfall+Warning&lat=19.4&lon=-155.289
- Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency announced the closure of Highway 11 between the 24 and 40 mile markers due to dangerous conditions being created by tephra falling: https://hawaii-county-civil-defense-agency-hawaiicountygis.hub.arcgis.com/
- Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park has announced that temporary closures around Kīlauea summit are in place due to volcanic hazards. Lodging guests of Volcano House and Kilauea Military Camp will be allowed to enter the park.
- Report tephra fall: https://hawaiiash.science/report_form
- Lava fountains from the south vent are currently reaching 1310 feet, while the north vent lava fountains are a little under 985 feet high.
- NWS/VAAC reports the plume currently reaching 30,000 feet above sea level. Winds from the south are currently pushing the plume to the north.
- Heed National Park Service and County of Hawaii guidance.
- Additional short messages during episodes: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages
- Timeline of eruptive episodes since December 23, 2024: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/eruption-information
- Three Kīlauea summit livestream videos: https://www.youtube.com/@usgs/streams
- Report tephra fall: https://hawaiiash.science/report_form
- Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Information https://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
- County of Hawaii Hazard Impact Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/5865229bcba74020992b372ef18b6f17
- Volcanic Gas: water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are continuously released during an eruption. SO2 reacts in the atmosphere to create the visible haze known as vog (volcanic smog) downwind, which may cause respiratory and other problems. Further information on vog can be found at https://vog.ivhhn.org/
- Tephra:small glassy volcanic fragments—volcanic ash, pumice, scoria, Pele's hair and reticulite—are created by the lava fountains. A combination of fountaining dynamics and wind conditions determines where tephra fall may occur for any given eruption episode. Larger particles fall near the vents while light particles may be wafted greater distances. These particles may be remobilized during windy conditions following recent eruptive episodes. Residents and visitors should minimize exposure to these fragments, which can cause skin, eye, and respiratory irritation. More information and guidance on tephra fall hazards is available at the links below:
- Lava flows: generally advance slowly downslope, and during this eruption flows have been confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater and the southwest side of Kaluapele, Kīlauea's summit caldera.
- Other: significant hazards exist around Kīlauea caldera from Halemaʻumaʻu crater wall instability, ground cracking, and rockfalls that can be enhanced by earthquakes. Close to the vents, the tephra material on the crater rim is prone to cracking, slumping, and small landslides that sometimes expose hot and molten material within. This underscores the extremely hazardous nature of Kīlauea's caldera rim surrounding Halemaʻumaʻu crater, an area that has been closed to the public since late 2007.
More Information:
- Kīlauea webcam images: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/webcams
- Kīlauea photos/video: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/photo-and-video-chronology
- Kīlauea lava-flow maps: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/maps
- Kīlauea FAQs: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/faqs
- Meaning of volcano alert levels and aviation color codes: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcanic-alert-levels-characterize-conditions-us-volcanoes.
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is one of five volcano observatories within the U.S. Geological Survey and is responsible for monitoring volcanoes and earthquakes in Hawaiʻi and American Samoa.
CONTACT INFORMATION:
askHVO@usgs.gov
Subscribe to these messages: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vns2/
Summary of volcanic hazards from eruptions: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/hazards
Recent earthquakes in Hawaiʻi (map and list): https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo
Explanation of Volcano Alert Levels and Aviation Color Codes: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcanic-alert-levels-characterize-conditions-us-volcanoes
View online at: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2026-03-10T20:58:58+00:00
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It is raining at the Kilauea summit today - with the amount of gas being released, I'd say it is an unpleasant combination.
Stuart Penkett obituary in The Guardian
Atmospheric chemist whose laboratory work helped to identify the causes of acid rain and the hole in the ozone layer
Atmospheric chemist whose laboratory work helped to identify the causes of acid rain and the hole in the ozone layer
RIP and thank you Dr. Penkett
The fine folks at www.spaceweather.com have posted this today:
https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis-ii/arow/
https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis-ii/arow/
I've been a good navigator all my life, can't recall a time where I was lost, even in cities like Tokyo or Rome. But, put me in L.A. and I'm screwed, no idea where the "Valley" is or how to get back to my hotel. My wife on the other hand, being raised in L. A. always knows where we are but in Tokyo, she was lost at all times. Go figure.
I don't read a lot of "papers" but in my interests I do stumble across them almost weekly. arXiv has been home to many. I see on their web site that they are going independent from Cornell as a non-profit on July 1, 2026. A quick KAGI pulls up recent mention of this in SCIENCE and in Scientific American and a few other sites.
I wish them the best and hope it doesn't lead to bad results.
I wish them the best and hope it doesn't lead to bad results.
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